Luck, Choice, and Sexual Orientation
An examination of the role of luck and choice in our lives.
Imagine two baby girls, similar in physical appearance, born within minutes of each other at the same hospital. One is baby Bari Weiss, the other is baby Misfortune. Shortly after birth, baby Bari Weiss is accidentally placed in baby Misfortune’s hospital bassinet, and subsequently goes home with Misfortune’s family. Misfortune is raised by Bari Weiss’s parents, and Bari Weiss is raised by Misfortune’s parents.
During this same period, in other parts of the country, there are other unfortunate hospital bassinet swaps.
Years pass by…
No one ever learns of these unfortunate accidental swaps. We never learn what happens to baby Misfortunate, but it’s very likely that she lives happily ever after.
Let’s examine outcomes from swaps like these.
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Scenario One
Imagine that Bari Weiss is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. She’s 19 years old, straight, and serving a mission near the temple in San Diego.
I’m 24 years old and staying at my sister’s apartment near the temple. Bari and her missionary partner knock on the door. I answer and Sister Weiss introduces herself saying, “Hello, I’m Sister Weiss and this is Sister Bowles, we’re missionaries with The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. We were hoping to read you a scripture from the Book of Mormon.”
Stepping outside and extending my hand I say, “Sure. It’s a pleasure to meet you. I’m Scott Gibb.” After shaking hands we take a seat in the outdoor common area. After some brief smalltalk, they read me their scripture and ask if I belong to a church. I thank them for their beautiful scripture and tell them: “No, I’m not a member of any church, but I would like to be part of a tight-knit community like theirs, however I don’t believe in Heavenly Father.”
“No problem,” they say, “you’re welcome to be part of our community.” This leads to an engaging conversation, and ends in a warm invitation. I agree to attend a Sunday service the following weekend. One thing leads to another and I keep attending each week. I also meet with Sisters Weiss and Bowles each Thursday evening along with another couple from the ward. I get to know Sisters Weiss and Bowles well, and then Sister Bowles is transferred to another district, while Sister Weiss stays on at this ward for another six months. During that time it becomes apparent that Sister Weiss and I are falling in love. When she is finally transferred to another district we hug goodbye and promise to stay in touch.
We do indeed stay in touch, and after Sister Weiss completes her mission, we begin dating and eventually get married and have eight children together. Our marriage is filled with love and affection. Our children grow up and eventually have children of their own. Bari and I enjoy our roles as grandparents and play an active role in our community.
Eventually we all pass from this world.
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Scenario Two
Imagine that baby Bari Weiss is swapped — not with baby Misfortune — but with baby Unfortune. Bari is 40 years old, married to Nellie Bowles, and raising their child next door to where I live with my wife and three kids. Being that two of my kids are similar in age to their child, they often play outside together. Over a period of years, I develop a close friendship with Bari and Nellie. One of my children becomes best friends with their child.
My children grow up and eventually have children of their own. Bari and I stay in touch for a number of years, but nothing more comes of our close friendship even though we have mutual admiration for each other that feels like love at times.
My wife and I remain married and enjoy our roles as a grandparents. Eventually I lose touch with Bari, but last I hear she is happy and flourishing.
Eventually we all pass from this world.
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Analysis
The outcome of Bari Weiss’s life is drastically different in scenarios One and Two. In Scenario One she is straight and married to me. In Scenario Two she is very similar to the Bari Weiss we know today, except that she and I are just close friends.
If we were to ask why Bari is of a certain sexual orientation, we might say that sexual orientation depends on a number of factors including biology, culture, events, and choice. We can’t say much about how these factors are related or weighted, but perhaps we can say that one’s sexual orientation isn’t necessarily binary. Rather it’s a continuous spectrum. At one end is straight and at the other end is gay - in between are various tendencies of bisexuality.
Choice can play a large role is one’s sexual orientation, just as genetics, culture, and events can play a large role.
Similarly, when we say that someone died of Covid-19, but also suffered from cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and genetic disease (at their time of death), is it safe to say that their cause of death had to do with culture, genetics, choice, and events? Perhaps we can, depending on the details of their case.
Conclusion
My point is that choice can play a large role in our sexual orientation just as it can in our cause of death.
If we have enough freedom and wealth, we can choose our community, our culture, our mate, and we can reduce the likelihood of certain kinds of unfortunate events. These factors combine to form a likelihood of certain outcomes. We might refer to these outcomes as a probability distribution of outcomes, or rather arrays of various probability distributions that influence each other.
Looking at just one of these distributions (spectrums), are outcomes that vary from most likely to least likely.
It can be complicated and abstract to visualize, but such spectrum might not actually be uniaxial. It might be multi-axial. In fact it might be hyper-axial with many possible types of outcomes. (Similar to your political identity and actions associated with your political identity).
With greater freedom and wealth, the number of different outcomes might grow quite large.
Choice isn’t everything for every kind of outcome — luck, genetics, culture, and evens can play a significant role as well.
Keep in mind however, that we can sometimes influence our luck and alter our culture. Further, choice can play a significant role in the genetics of our children — we can choose who to mate with and who to marry.1
Can we change our biology? Not so much, but certainly if we don’t sleep well, or if we drink too much, there are adverse effects to our biology. Likewise, if we exercise and eat well, we can strengthen our bodies and feel more confident. Such choices and actions, can and often do lead to different outcomes.
Finally, we can also learn from our mistakes and form better judgment.
I can’t say how much control any one person has over their sexual orientation, but some of us do have a choice in our sexual orientation.
Going Deeper
Assuming that you have influence over your sexual orientation, what are some long-term goals to consider in your choices?
Similarly, assuming that you have influence over your child’s sexual orientation, what are some long-term goals to consider in your choices?
Does sexual orientation correlate with certain outcomes such as happiness, flourishing, and life satisfaction?
Perhaps most people are happier in old age if they have grandchildren and are close to those grandchildren. What actions and precautions might someone take to increase the likelihood of being close to grandchildren in old age?
This wasn’t always the case in our evolutionary history of course.
With monozygotic twins, if the first twin is gay, there is a 40% chance that the second twin is gay. This is way above the baseline stats, but it also argues against the 'born this way' pronunciation which brooks no argument. Homosexuality seems to be a complex mosaic of biological inclination, mind and personal choice.